Over the past few years, with the meteoric return of the watch market after the COVID pandemic, we have seen Tudor become one of the most talked-about brands in the world. Through vintage design, extreme quality for price, and of course, the connection to the king of the hill, Rolex.

With watches like the Black Bay 58 being hailed as the best entry-level luxury watch by many, or the incredible dive watches within the Pelagos line, most people who like subtle design and a sporty look can find something to love within Tudor. With all of this positive praise coming Tudor’s way and that praise being well earned and justified, how can Tudor have a big problem?

Let’s start by taking a look at Tudor’s finances. In the years after COVID, we saw Tudor rise in the watch market as demand increased and the brand was finally getting the full recognition it deserved. Sales were booming, and the brand was on an incredible hot streak. From releasing fantastic watches like the Black Bay 54, which we will talk about later, to having great brand ambassadors like David Beckham, and opening up new boutiques worldwide.

This past year, Tudor’s high came crashing down as their sales took the biggest hit of all Swiss luxury brands last year. In 2023, their sales were 545 million CHF, a very respectable number that they could build on. In 2024, their sales dropped 34% to a meager 360 million CHF. These numbers might seem damming and are definitely a part of the problem when it comes to Tudor. I think that they don’t really care about the finances, as they’re big brother Rolex has revenue of over 10 billion CHF per year and a market share of over 30%.

The big problem that Tudor currently has is releases. How they operate is that they release their core collection for the year at Watches and Wonders. Those pieces are usually very well received as they are often boring but extremely practical and update the prior generation of watches in a slight but important way. Last year, this was bringing the 5-link bracelet and METAS certified caliber to the Black Bay 58 line, or making a new, thinner Pelagos.

Outside of that small window in April around Watches and Wonders happens, they release pieces that are not apart of that core collection and this is where Tudor has fun with it’s pieces. Here they make the colorful pieces that they so often lack in the core collection. The big issue with these pieces is the scarcity, sure some would say that works in it’s favor since scarcity fuels demand, that tool is only so powerful when you can eventually fulfill that demand. See Rolex as an example, the scarcity is evident but they produce the watches for a long enough time that most people that want them can get them.

The big problem with these pieces is that they are usually the coolest within the Tudor catalog, but their scarcity draws attention away from the core collection. Take, for instance, the Black Bay chrono, in the core collection, you have a few base colors, the black and white versions both being the biggest sellers within that line. Now, Tudor has made both a pink version and a flamingo blue version. Both versions are fresh takes on an otherwise safe watch. With these new and exciting dial colors, people who were considering the base colors now want the new and fresh colors. They go to the store and find out they can’t get them, and they don’t want the base colors anymore because these new ones are a lot more fun.

These watches are very hard to get, and due to the scarcity and the production being for such a limited time, it is only high-value clients get the opportunity to buy these watches. This rewards loyalty, which is not a bad thing, but it hurts exposure and broadening the client base of the brand. This then means that new clients will want the fun new pieces in the interesting and different colorways, except for the watches that, in comparison, are dull.

I think the worst case of this is the new Black Bay 54 in Lagoon blue; this watch is stunning. I have been fortunate enough to see it in person and spend an extended time analyzing it, and I must say it is one of the best watches Tudor has released this decade. The dial color is amazing, and the sand-like texture makes the overused light blue color look fresh and incredibly dynamic. The 5-link bracelet suits it like a glove, and I love that they are trying to increase the women’s field of their watchmaking by advertising it more towards that market, which has often been lacking in Tudor.

Now, instead of having this watch be an insanely fun and cool alternative to the phenomenal watch that the Black Bay 54 watch is, they decide that this watch is a daring piece, meaning that the production is limited. This decision could cost them so much money in sales, not just sales of the Lagoon Blue watch but in general, as collectors have been moving away from the brand, and this management direction of short-term hype is failing more and more with each daring watch they release.